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19 June 2003

LIGHTING THE FUSE WITHOUT KNOWING THE SIZE OF THE BOMB?

The heading refers to those people who are calling for Burma's complete
isolation, including diplomatic breaks, who are playing right into the hands of
China.  Maybe that is precisely what they want?  But for those who shout without
first thinking, consider this!  There are varying theories why Ne Win, took
power when he did, but the most obvious has never been debated, perhaps because
very few have considered it, or do not have the means to study it, or because
they are aware of it and want to revert back to its original objective?  How
many have asked why
Ne Win, had such a tight grip, and why he felt secure in his own web of
corruption and tyranny?

When Ne Win took power in 1962, after putting down Burma's opportunity of
becoming a democracy under U Nu, how many people related that to the SINO-SOVIET
and INDIAN disputes, and how that period is still overshadowing Burma to day?
Between 1959 and the end of 1962, the Soviet's and Chinese were at
loggerheads with each other, which lead to a communist split.  India was in the
middle
under Nehru.  The Soviet philosophy toward the west, was passive compared to
China's, some say because the Soviets were more aware of a nuclear war than
China, It seems China was just as aware, but less concerned.  The Soviets have
half of Europe, plus their cold war battlefields on the African continent, and
China did not want to share its influences throughout South East Asia, with the
Soviets, because it would have meant, drawing western counter acts, this in
turn could have had dire consequences on Chinas future influence.  By the time
1962 came around, both the Soviets and China were fighting to influence India
into a communist government, some say America donated large funds to raise an
anti communist movements, some even suggest this lead to Kennedy's
assassination in 1962, this would make a controversial film, but it would have
to titled
as fiction of course?  There were numerous border skirmishes involving Indian
troops.  From all of this came India's skirmishes with Pakistan.  All of this
arose from the Soviet China split, and it would not stop there.  China shared a
large border with Burma, which it considered as the doorway to South East
Asia.  Burma had already experienced British influences, as did India.  Some
would view the Second World War as a victory to China, because it now left two
major openings for them to monopolise while the shock waves of war, were still
reverberating.  With India and Burma falling back on Britain's promise of
independence after the war, made it an open house to the Soviets and China.
America at this time was comparatively new at the game, but learning fast.

Depending how deep and varied a person studies, or their actual involvement,
in the cold war during those times, 1959 to 1962 must surely fill the mind
with questions.  In the west of course, we have America's president Kenney's
assassination in 1962, in India, with its disputes, stirred up by the Soviets
British, America and china, together with Tibet being bullied by China.
In between there was Burma with U Nu, attempting to bring a democracy to the
country in 1962, only to be squashed by a military take over, which must have
been with China's approval.
China had to secure its influence somewhere, preferably in a country which
was still split by all the different ethnic populations, and not seen by the
west at that time as important, at least not on the same scale as Japan, Hong
Kong and of course India.  The fact of Japan being firmly under American
influence, and Hong Kong still under Britain, both secure under the new atomic
shield.
 Of course while all of this was going on, there was still the Korean
situation.

Getting back to present day Burma, the 1990 elections could very well be
considered as on par with U Nu's election back in 1962.  The regime, backed by
China, considered its power base as secure, believing that one of its home grown
political clones would win the election, therefore showing the world that
Burma's people were now safe under a democracy, but hiding the fact that the
real
power still lay with the regime and China. It all went wrong for them, and the
NLD won a great victory.  China was not amused.  The rest is history.   To
call for complete isolation now, would play into the hands of China, and place
the leaders of the regime into a corner, because, although China will be happy
if Burma severed links to the west, it would in fact, be the regime leaders
who pay the price, because travel would be restricted, their wealth, which is
distributed around the world, in the west of course, where else, would be
frozen. This would take away any remaining independence the regime had from
China,
making them 100% dependant on China.  The noticeable thing about dictators and
their cronies is, they keep their people in chains, preaching all kinds of
ideals, but they fail to live by those ideals themselves, and instead enjoy all
the western comforts they deny their own people.  If the regime thought all
that would be lost by becoming completely walled out of the west, it could make
them even more tyrannical toward the people.  They could however offer the
country to the people by calling for elections under UN supervision, but like
Kennedy, would they become victims themselves?

Unless that is the aim of some voices, then it would be advisable to think
before calling in the hangman.  If the aim is to go in China's direction, then
find the courage to stand by your convictions, and let the people decide.
To sever diplomatic ties with Burma, would make it more difficult to observe
the situation which our Embassies abroad allow us to do, and are on hand to
meet with the countries leaders at close quarters.  Take that away, and our eyes
and ears are disabled. It would be the same as the prisons in Burma; no one
knows what goes on inside the walls, only that many never come out.
If people have something to say, it must be constructive and not reminiscent
of the school playground, where imagination and dreams are rampant.   We are
playing for real, and people get hurt in this game, so only mature minds should
enter, less they get hurt, or more importantly, hurt others!

All of the above is only my opinion, but for those who really believe in
Burma, should read up on it before dictating their views!

Nick. .

UK.org.  Member.